Here you can find a list of our published journal articles:

• Kishore, S., Nemati, M., Dinar, A., Struthers, C. L., MacKenzie, S., & Shugart, M. S. (2025). Climate-induced changes in agricultural land use: parcel-level evidence from California’s Central Valley . Climatic Change, 178:59.  

  How growers adjust land-use decisions to a changing climate has important consequences for food supplies and environmental impact. In this paper, we examine changes in agricultural land use as an adaptive response to long-term climate impacts, using unique parcel-level data in Central Valley, California – a major agricultural hub worldwide. We combine parcel-specific acreage decisions and climate normal to assess the climate-induced land use transition. We find that growers in the Central Valley are transitioning from annual crops to perennial crops in response to changing climates. Summer degree days and total precipitation increased the share of perennial crops, and projected declines in winter chill hours are also expected to increase the share of perennial crops in the Central Valley. Analysis of land-use with heterogeneous land quality suggests that the share of perennial crops increased 11% in high-quality lands and 7% in low quality lands.

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• Prakash, D., Nemati, M., Dinar, A., Struthers, C., Mackenzie, S., & Shugart, M. (2024). Advancement to the Ricardian Analysis in the Past Quarter of the Century . Climate Change Economics, Vol. 15, No. 03.  

  This paper presents a comprehensive review of the literature on Ricardian analysis as applied to estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture. Through a survey of published research, we discuss revisions, expansions, and the criticisms researchers have made of the Ricardian analysis since its introduction by Mendelsohn et al. The types of dependent variables and the choice of the climate variables utilized in the Ricardian analysis are synthesized and discussed. Additionally, the paper outlines the distinctions between static and dynamic Ricardian analysis, different farm types, and analyses using aggregate and farm-level data. The paper provides a synthesis of the findings of previous studies related to the study location and farm type and explores open questions and empirical concerns that require investigation in future research.

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• Kishore, S., Nemati, M., Dinar, A., Struthers, C. L., MacKenzie, S., & Shugart, M. S. (2024) Trends in California Farmland Sales Prices and the Impacts of Drought. Agricultural and Resource Economics ARE UPDATE, Vol. 27, No. 2.

  This paper describes the trends in the California farmland market across counties and crop types over the past two decades. We explored the trends in farmland sales transactions and farmland values during drought events. The number of parcels sold and farmland value increased following the major drought periods in California between 2001 and 2021.

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• Kishore, S., Nemati, M., Dinar, A., Struthers, C. L., MacKenzie, S., & Shugart, M. S. (2024). The Changing Face of Farmland in California’s Central Valley: Crop Types and Land Quality. Agricultural and Resource Economics ARE UPDATE, Vol. 28, No. 1.

  We examine spatial and temporal trends in crop-specific land-use decisions at the parcel level by land capability class—land quality—in California’s Central Valley from 2008 to 2021. Our findings indicate that the land-use share of perennial crops has increased by 9 percentage points since 2008, though this growth varies depending on land quality. Specifically, the land-use share of perennial crops increased 11 percentage points for high-quality lands and 7 percentage points for low-quality lands. The land-use share of annual crops significantly decreased for both high-quality and low-quality land, but only marginally decreased for poor-quality land.

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